????é¢?ï¼?å¤??½é????延续???½æ????nbsp; ç¾?欧ç?¸ç»§æ­¥å?¥é?????¨æ??ï¼?å¼?é¢?ï¼?

??ç»??¿å??ï¼??¨ç??ç»?æµ?è´?????è¡?ï¼?主é?ï¼?

?½é?????¥è??? è· ??/p>

ä¸??½é?¶è???究é?¢æ?¥å????å¸???2024å¹´ç?äº?季度???¨ç??ç»?æµ?????å±????¥å?? ??认为ï¼??¨ç??ç»?æµ?å¢??¿å?¨è?½æ?¿å??ï¼?ä¸?è¡?é£??©ä???????ï¼?è´§å??¿ç??¨æ??æ­£è??¥æ???¹ï?é¢?计ç?欧央è¡?äº?季度?????¸ç»§æ­¥å?¥é?????¨æ??ï¼??¥å??æ±???äºþ@?æ­¥å?¥ä?è¡???????

ä»?å¹´ä?季度ï¼?ä¸???ç»?æµ???ç»??¿å??ï¼???æ±??²è½¯????主è?????ç´???ç´?????è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½?æ¶?è´¹å??¿é??温ï???èµ?æ´»å?¨æ??ç»??è¿·ï??¿å????ºè?ç´§ï?è´¸æ??æ´»å?¨å?????æ­¥ç?? ¬???¨ç???¶é??ä¸???æ­¥æ???±ç?²å¼±?¶æ??ï¼????¡ä?延续??¥½è¡¨ç?°ã??ä¾?ç»??¹å??????æ±?ä¸?æ»??¨å?¨å?¨ç?????????½ã??主è???è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½?ä¸??ç¾??½ç»´??温å??å¢??¿ï?欧å???ºæ?´ä?ä½?è¿·ï??¥æ????å¼±å??????¿ï??±å?½ç?æµ?ç­?åº?????ï¼??°å?´ç?æµ?ä½?ä¸???©å?½ã??墨西?¥å??ä¸???äº?ç­??¶é??ä¸??ºå?£å??ç»?æµ?ä½?å¢??¿å?¿å¤´?´ä?好转ï¼?æ²??¹ã??巴西??ä¿?ç½????大å??????ºå?£å?½é?¨å???????ºå?£å??¿å???»ï??°åº¦ç»?æµ?延续é«?å¢??¿æ???¿ï?????ç­??¨å???½å??·å?¥å?°å???

主è?ç»?æµ?ä½?è´§å??¿ç???¸´???¹ï??¥æ??¤®è¡????ºè??©ç????å¤????´æ?¥æ??èµ????ºå?????¹å?ï¼?è¯??¸ç?????èµ?表ç?°å???????¨ç??æ±???å¸??ºæ³¢?¨æ?§å?大ï??½é??å¸??ºè??èµ??©ç??ç»´æ??é«?ä½?ï¼??¨ç???¡å???ç»?????ï¼?é»???ä»·æ?¼å?????°é???

å±???äº?季度ï¼??¨ç??ç»?æµ?å¢?????å°?å°?å¹????½ã??主è???è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½?æ¶?è´¹é??温ã??è´¢æ?¿æ???ºæ?¶ç´§?¿å¤´?´å?????¾ï??¨ç??è´¸æ??å¢???继续?¢å?ï¼??????²å???¼é??? ¬???¨ç????产æ????延续ä¼?稳å??????¿ï?ä¾?åº??¾æ?°å?¨å?????å½±å??è¶?å¼±ï??¨ç??????????è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ç?解ã??ç¾?欧央è¡?é¢?计å?æ­¥å?¥é?????¨æ?????¨ç??æµ??¨æ?§ä?ç»??»ä?平稳ï¼?è·¨å?èµ?????¨è??å¥??¾ç???å¤?æ±?å¸??ºå????°ç?强æ?å¼±æ?¼å?ï¼??¥å??æ±???å°?æ­¥å?¥ä?è¡????????¨ç???¡ç¥¨??èµ?ç»?????步转??ï¼?äº?欧è?¡å??¸å?????????大å?????ä»·æ?¼ç?¸å?平稳ï¼?é»???ä»·æ?¼ä?å°????°å??强走?¿ã??

?¨ç??ç»?æµ?å¢??¿å?¨è?½å??å¼?/strong>

2022年以?¥ï??¨ç???°ç??¿æ²»é£??©å???§ã??产ä??¾ä?åº??¾æ·±?»é??å¡???主è???è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½??¶ç´§è´§å??¿ç?ï¼???大ä??????¨ç??ç»?æµ?å¤????¾åº¦ï¼??¨ç??ç»?æµ?å¢??¿é??¸´??ä¸?稳å???ä¸?ç¡????ç´?å¢?å¤???2023å¹´ï??¨ç??ç»?æµ?å¢???ä¸?.7%ï¼?å¸??ºæ???æ³?ï¼?ï¼?æ¯?2022å¹´ä?0.3ä¸??¾å???¹ã??ä»?å¹´ä?季度ï¼??¨ç??ç»?æµ?å¢??¿å?¨è?½æ?¿å??ï¼?ä¾?ç»?????æ±?两ç?表ç?°å??????

ä»?ä¾?ç»?ç«???ï¼??¨ç???¶é??ä¸???æ¸?ä»????????²å¼±?¶æ???¢å?ï¼??¨ç?????¡ä?延续è¾?好表?°ã??2??份ï??¨ç???¶é??ä¸?PMI?¨æ?¶é??1å¹´å??????次å??????0%以ä?ï¼?å®??°è?ç»?¸¤ä¸?????å¢??¿ï??¨ç?????¡ä?PMIè¿?ç»?ä¸???å¢??¿ã????????15?¥ï???indç»?计ç??71项å?¨ç??主è?ç»?æµ?ä½?PMI????ä¸??2??份å?äº??©å??¶æ??????????æ¯?60.6%ï¼?é«?äº?1??份ç??53.2%ï¼?ä¸?023å¹???以æ?¥æ??é«????¨å?¨ç??产ä??¾é?????????ï¼?欧ç????½çº·çº·å??大产ä¸??¿ç?使ç???????对å?¶é??ä¸???补贴????????åºþ:?????·å????份ï?欧ç????äº?ä¼???欧洲è®??å°±ã?????¶å·¥ä¸?æ³?æ¡???è¾¾æ??临æ?¶å??è®???¨å?¨å??强æ????¨å·¥ä¸?绿è?²æ?????¹é?¢ç??ä¼??¿ï???ç¾??½æ?©å??022å¹´å°±?¨å?ºã??????????æ³?æ¡?????????ä¸?ç§?å­þ=?æ¡???ç­?产ä??¿ç?ï¼???è¿???ä¼?ä¸???ä¾?èµ???补贴??ç¨??¶å????ç­?ä¼??????½ï??ºæ???导ä???æ¸?æ´??½æ????°è?½æ?汽车ç­??¸å?³ä?ä¸???èµ???ä¸?è¿°æ?¿ç??????欧ç??½å?å·¥ä???产è?½å??ï¼?ç¾??½ã???±å?½ã????大å?©ç?主è???è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½?å·¥ä???产æ???°é??æ¸?ä¸?è¡???æ­¤å?ï¼?ä¸??½å???°åº¦å·¥ä???产延ç»??好表?°ï?å¸þ@?¨æ?°å?´ç?æµ?ä½?å·¥ä???产æ???°æ?´ä????????·å?°ç?æµ?????å±?æµ?ç®??¾ç¤ºï¼?2023å¹?2??份å?¨ç??å·¥ä???产æ???°ä¸º129.3ï¼?è¾?2022å¹´å????å¢???.5%??

ä»???æ±?ç«???ï¼?主è?ç»?æµ?ä½?å±?æ°?æ¶?è´¹æ??????温ï?ç§?人æ??èµ?延续ä½?è¿·æ???¿ï??¿å?è´¢æ?¿æ???ºè?äº??¶ç´§??ä¸?????è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½?å±?æ°?æ¶?è´¹é??æ¸???温ã???¨å?¶é??ä¸??????¡ä?å¤???å¸þ@?¨ä?ï¼?主è?ç»?æµ?ä½?å°±ä??????ç»´æ??è¾?好表?°ï?ä¸?å®?ç¨?åºþ??稳å?äº?家庭æ¶?è´¹æ???ºã??ä¸?è¿?ï¼?????ä¼?ä¸??´äº§å¢???以å??欧ç??½å???????ç§?´¯??è¶?é¢??¨è????æ¸?æ¶???ï¼???è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½?ç§?人æ?è´¹æ???ºå??¿ä?????ä»?å¹???份ï?ç¾??½ç?人æ?è´¹ç???ä¸???0.1%ï¼?ä¸?023å¹???以æ?¥æ??ä½?ï¼??¥æ????ä¸?????????ä¸???17.3%??é¢?计ä?季度å±?æ°?æ¶?è´¹å??¨ç??GDPå¢??¿ç??è´¡ç????å°?ä¾??¶ä¸ºæ­£ï?ä½?è´¡ç???åºþ@??¶ç???äº???¸»è¦?ç»?æµ?ä½?紧缩货å??¿ç?对ç?人æ??èµ???ç»?¸¦?¥æ???¶ä??¨ã???½é??è´§å??ºé??ç»?ç»?ï¼?IMFï¼?é¢?è®?024å¹´å?¨ç???ºå?èµ?产æ??èµ???GDPæ¯???ä¸?6.2%ï¼?è¾?2023å¹´ä???0.2ä¸??¾å???¹ï?å°?为è?ç»??äº?å¹´ä???ï¼?ä½???å¹?è¾?2023å¹´æ?¶ç?0.8ä¸??¾å???¹ã??主è?ç»?æµ?ä½?å®??½ç??ç§???产ä??¿ç??ºæ?äº?ä¼?ä¸?建ç???èµ???设å???èµ?ï¼??¨ä?å®?ç¨?åºþ??å¼±å??äº?紧缩?§è´§å¸??¿ç?对ç?人æ??èµ???è´??¢å½±??ï¼?è¿?????½®?????¨æ??ä¸?è¿?å¾??¨æ?????¾ä??????°æ?¹ï????©ä?å¹³ç?ç§?人æ??èµ?æ³¢å?¨ã??ä¸???¸»è¦?ç»?æµ?ä½?è´¢æ?¿æ???ºå??å°????¨æ?¿å??ºå?¡å????ä¸?ï¼?主è?ç»?æµ?ä½?è´¢æ?¿æ?¿ç???æ¸???å½?正常??ï¼?è´¢æ?¿æ???ºå?ç»?æµ?è´¡ç??º¦ä¸?????1??份ï?ç¾??½è???þ=?¿å?è´¢æ?¿æ???ºç???ä¸???10.6%??2023å¹´æ???å¹³å???¿å?赤å???ä¸?.3%ï¼???12ä¸?????½å?赤å???è¶?è¿?è§?å®???3%??为é??ä½?赤å???ï¼?å¤??½è??´è´¢?¿æ???ºè???ï¼?å¾·å??024年大è§?模å????è´¢æ?¿é?ç®?ï¼?æ³???024å¹´è´¢?¿é?ç®?è§?模è?2023å¹´ä???1%??

å±???äº?季度ï¼??¨ç??ç»?æµ?å¢???å°?å°?å¹????½ã??ä»?ä¾?ç»?ç«???ï¼??¶é??ä¸????°ä?稳迹象ï??¨å?¨ç???¶é??ä¸?PMIå¤?ä¸???项æ????ä¸??产å?ºã???°è?????å°±ä????°æ???¾å????ï¼????¥ä»·?¼æ???°å?å¹?ä¸?è¡?ï¼???项é??è¦????????¹å??ï¼?é¢?示ç??äº?季度?¨ç???¶é??ä¸?????继续维æ??å¤??????¿ã??产å?ºæ???°å??¿ï?表æ???¨ç???¶é??ä¸???产è?½å????æ­¥æ?¢å?ï¼?产å??ä¾?åº??½å??å¢?强ï??°è??????°ä???ï¼?表æ??å¸??ºå??¶æ??????æ±?????ï¼?对å?¶é??ä¸?????产è?½å?©ç?¨ç????å¢???产å?ºå?·æ??ç§????¨å?¨ä????å°±ä????°å??¿ï??????¶é??ä¸?å°±ä?????¹å??ï¼????©ä???é«?å±?æ°?å°±ä?ä¿¡å?ï¼????¥ä»·?¼æ???°ä?è¡?ï¼?表æ???¶é??ä¸???产æ???????ï¼????©ä???é«?ä¼?ä¸????©æ°´å¹³ã??æ­¤å?ï¼??¨ç?????¡ä?å°?延续??????è¾?好ç??å¤??????¿ï??¨ç?????¡æ´»?¨å???ç»????ï¼?交é??????游ã??é¤?é¥???娱ä?ç­??¥è§¦?????¡ä?产å?ºå?稳æ?å¢??¿ã??

ä»???æ±?ç«???ï¼?äº?季度ï¼?主è?ç»?æµ?ä½?å±?æ°?æ¶?è´¹é??温å?¿å¤´å°??´å?????¾ï?对ç?æµ?????ä½??¨è?ä¸?æ­¥å??å¼±ã??????ç»???©ç??å½±å??ï¼?2023å¹´ä???年以?¥ï?欧ç???è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½?ä¼?ä¸??´äº§?°é??大å?å¢???ï¼??³å?¨å??å¸??ºé??æ¸???温ï????å¢????¾ç?ï¼?????è¶?é¢??¨è??æ¶???ï¼?æ¶?è´¹è?????ºå????°è??¢å½±???????¶ï??¨ç???ºå?èµ?产æ??èµ?å°?继续???°ç´§ç¼©æ?§è´§å¸??¿ç?å½±å??ï¼?????表ç?°é?¾æ?????¾æ?¹è????¨ç??主è?ç»?æµ?ä½?è´¢æ?¿æ???ºå?继续维æ??紧平衡ç?¶æ??ï¼?è´¢æ?¿å???????°æ?´å?çºþ=????

综å???¤æ???äº?季度?¨ç??å®???GDP??æ¯?å¢?????ä¸?.4%ï¼?è¾?ä¸?季度ä¸???0.1ä¸??¾å???¹ã??é¢?计å?¨å¹´å®???GDPå¢?????.5%å·þ@?³ï?è¾?2023å¹´ä???0.2ä¸??¾å???¹ã??

?¨ç??????延续???½æ????/strong>

ä»?å¹´ä?季度ï¼??¨ç???????´ä????½ï?ä½??½æ???è´¸æ????ä»·æ?¼å??å¼¹å??´é?¨å??ç»?æµ?ä½???????åºþAµ°é«???ä»?????ä¾???å½¢å?¿ç??ï¼??¨ç????产稳å®?å¤???ï¼??¹å?????¶é??ä¸???产é??æ¸?ä»?ä½?è¿·ç?¶æ??ä¸??¢å?ï¼???æ±???????温ï?ä¾?ä¸?åº?æ±??¶å?µæ??ç»??¹å????ä»?æµ??¨æ?§ç?????ï¼??¨ç???©ç??ä¸??¢ç»´??é«?ä½?ï¼?è´§å?????´ä???ç´§ï??¨å?¨å?¨ç??CPIå¢??????½ã??ä»?大å???????è¿??£æ?è´¹å??ä»·æ?¼èµ°?¿ç??ï¼?ä¸?季度???°ç??¿æ²»?²ç?å½±å??ï¼???ä¼?å£??æ²³ã??红海ç­?è¿??¥ä???欧大?????½é??è´¸æ??主è?????è¿?è¾?????ä¸???ï¼?导è?´å?½é???½æ?ä»·æ?¼ä»¥???¸å?³å?°å?ºè??£æ?è´¹å??ä»·æ?¼ä?æ¶??驱å?¨ä¸­ä¸?????æ´²é?¨å???°å?´ç?æµ?ä½?CPIå¢?????????

1??份ï??¨å???CPI?°æ????73ä¸??æµ?ä½?ä¸??CPI??æ¯?å¢???ä¸???????46ä¸????æ¯?ä¸?3.0%??G20ç»?æµ?ä½?GDP????å¹³å????????ä¸?.0%ï¼?è¾?2023å¹´å¹´?????0.1ä¸??¾å???¹ã??è¿???????ï¼?å½¢å?¿æ????????ï¼??¨å???CPI?°æ????37ä¸??æµ?ä½?ä¸????????å¼¹ç??ç»?æµ?ä½???æ¯?ä¸?5.9%ï¼?è¾?1??份æ??é«?8.9ä¸??¾å???¹ï?????顽å?ºæ?§å?¸æ?¾ã???¶ä¸­ï¼??¿æ?¹å»·?????³å?¶ã??????ç­??½é????ç»?对水平é?ä¸?涨å?è¾?大ï??½å??????¸´???¶æ?§é??è´§è?¨è????æ±???大å?è´??¼ã??å¤??ºå?¿ä???????大â??ç­????ï¼?ä¸??½ã??è¶??????²å?宾ã??æ³°å?½ã???©å?½ã???°å°¼ç­?äº?å¤??°å?´ç?æµ?ä½?????ç»?对水平ä?ï¼???ä½?äº?4%ï¼?ï¼?ä½???????????å¼¹ï????½ä??½æ???å·¥ä???å±?ç­?大å?????ä»·æ?¼å????导è?´ç??产æ??????æ¶?è´¹å??ä»·æ?¼æ??é«????³ï?ç¾??½é??????åºþAµ°é«?ï¼???é«?0.1ä¸??¾å???¹ï?ï¼?ä¸?è¡?è¶??¿æ???¶æ??½¬ï¼?ä¸?è¿?欧å???ºå??欧洲主è???è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½?????ä»?延续ä¸?è¡?è¶??¿ã??

å±???äº?季度ï¼??¨ç??????????å°?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ç?解ã???¨ç??ä¾????¶å?µå???ç»??¹å??ï¼??¶é??ä¸?产å?ºå?继续稳æ?å¢??¿ï?äº?å¤??°å?´ç?æµ?ä½??ºå?£å½¢?¿æ??ç»?¥½è½??å°?å¢????¨ç??????ä¾?ç»?ï¼???è¾¾ç?æµ?ä½?ä¼?ä¸??´äº§å¢?????å·¥è?å¢????¾ç?å°?导è?´é??æ±?继续???½ã??ä»?æµ??¨æ?§ç?????ï¼???ç´§ç?????????å°?继续对æ?è´¹å????èµ?å½¢æ?????¶ï?欧ç??½å?????????继续???½ã???¼å?注æ???????äº?季度红海?±æ?ºå??å·´æ?¿é©¬è¿?河干?±é???å°???ç»??°å?¨å?¨ç??ä¾?åº??¾ï?主è??½é??????????è£?ç®±è?è´§é????油轮??天ç?¶æ?è¿?è¾??¹é??è¡?????ç»?????å½±å??ï¼??½æ?ç­?大å?????ä»·æ?¼å???½ç»´???¨é?ä½?ï¼?å°?å½±å???¨ç?????????½é??åºþ:???¨ç??æ°??????????½å½±??ç²??产é??ï¼?2023年为??温度记å?以æ?¥æ??????ä¸?å¹´ï?2024å¹´å?°ç??æ°?温å???½ç»§ç»????ï¼?é«?温干?±ç???ç«????äº?件å?对å?¨ç??ç²??产é??å¸þ=?¥è??¢å½±??ï¼?äº?季度?½é??ç²?»·???½å??åºþAµ°é«????±ä?é£????¨ä??¶å?¥ç?æµ?ä½?æ¶?è´¹ç?å­?ä¸???????大份é¢?ï¼?é£???ä»·æ?¼å????å°???大ä??¶å?¥ç?æµ?ä½???????????对ä??¿æ?¹å»·?????³å?¶ã??????ç­?æ­£é?????¶æ?§é??è´§è?¨è???°æ?°ç??ç»?æµ?ä½??¥è?ï¼?ç»??¥ä¸»ä½?对æ?????ä¿¡å?ä¸??????ï¼?å¦???ä¸??½é???????????½ï?å°?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥é?·å?¥é????èµ°é???æ±???è´??¼ç???¶æ?§è?ºæ????

???¡è´¸????为é??è¦??¨å?¨å????

2023å¹´å?¨ç??è´¸æ??表ç?°ä?è¿·ã???????½è´¸??ä¼?è®??°æ???¾ç¤ºï¼??¨ç???ºå?£é?ä¸?0.6ä¸?亿ç???ï¼?è¾?2022å¹´å???²é??¹ä???4.7%ï¼??ºå??GDPä¸?2.9%ï¼?è¾?2022å¹´ä???2.7ä¸??¾å???¹ï??????ºå??2.9ä¸?亿ç???ï¼?è¾?2022å¹´ä???8.0%ï¼????¡å?ºå??.6ä¸?亿ç???ï¼?è¾?2022å¹´å???.0%????å±?ä¸??½å??????ºå?£å???ä¸?æ»?ï¼?ä¸???7%以ä?ï¼?ï¼??¨ç?????????½å??´è´¸????ä»·æ?¼èµ°ä½???为贸??é¢?å¢??¿ä?????主è????????¨å?°ç?????¥è?å¤????????ï¼??¿æ²»?³è????为影???¨ç??è´¸æ??æµ???????è¦???????2023å¹´ï?ä¸????边贸??è§?模ä???ï¼?墨西?¥æ??为ç??½ç?ä¸?大è??£æ?¥æ??½ï?ä¿?ç½????å¤?è´¸æ???ºå??ç»???????æ·±å?»å??????

2024年以?¥ï??¨ç??è´¸æ????????迹象??ä¸???è´¸æ??ç»?ç»???å¸???è´§ç?©è´¸???´é?¨è¡¨???°å??????00.6ï¼??ºå?£è???å¢?å¤?????©ºè´§ç?©è´¸??????????è´¸æ??å¢??¿æ??为æ?¨å?¨è´¸??å¤?????主è?????ï¼?主è?ç»?æµ?ä½?è´¸æ???°æ???????ºç?°æ?¹å?????¶è??ï¼??????¶ç?¾å????°ç??²ç???级ç???ç´?å½±å??ï¼???ä¼?å£??æ²³å??å·´æ?¿é©¬è¿?æ²³è???大å?ä¸?æ»?ï¼??¨ç??ä¾?åº??¾ç´§å¼????°ç??023å¹?2??????-0.16大å?????024å¹???????0.10???????»å?å¸þ=?¥ç??è¿???ä¸????????????ï¼?延ç?äº??¨ç??è´§ç?©è´¸???¢å???åºþ:??ä»?年以?¥ï?以交??????游为代表???¨ç?????¡è´¸??å¤??????¿è??¥½??2024å¹???ï¼??½é????©ºè¿?è¾???ä¼?ï¼?IATAï¼???å¸????¨ç????©ºå®¢è??¶ç???????°ï?RPKï¼???æ¯?å¢???6.6%ï¼?å·²å?ºæ???¢å???019å¹´ç??????æ°´å¹³???¶ä¸­ï¼?äº?å¤?????æ´²å??ä¸???°å?ºç??RPK?¢å???åºþA?为æ???¾ï???为æ???¡è´¸??è¾?å¿???¿ç????è¦???????

å±???äº?季度ï¼??¨ç??è´¸æ??å¢???å°?延续?¢å????¿ï?并å?????²å???¼é??? ¬???¨ç????????å¹?è¶?ç¼????©ä?å½¢æ??对贸????ä»·æ?¼æ????ï¼?ç¾?????欧å??ç­??¨ç??主è?è´¸æ??计价货å??????????æµ??¨æ?§æ?¡ä»¶?¹å??ï¼????©ä?ä¿?è¿?è´¸æ????èµ?ï¼??¨ç????å½±å????æ­¥æ????????ï¼?交é??????游ä???å¤???以å???°å?ç»?æµ???å±?ï¼?å°??????¨ç?????¡è´¸??以è?å¿???åºþ@??¿ã??

å½??¶ï??¨ç??è´¸æ???¢å?ä¹???¸´ä¸?äº?ä¸?ç¡????ç´?ï¼??????ºå???²ç????½æ?©å¤§??级ï??²å?»ä?åº??¾é?§æ?§ï??????»å?对货?©è´¸??产ç????ç´???åº?ï¼?å¤??½é??¸´å¤§é??ï¼?对å??¿ç????½å????è¾?大æ?¹å??ï¼???å¾??³ç???强å???ºå?£ç??¶ç????¶æ???½å???½å??????